Soccer by Rolltide

[rolltide]

I'll keep a 2007-08 thread here. My first pick of the season was a Thursday friendly with Deportivo which is in a different thread. Plays will range from $50-500

YTD 1-0 +$215

two small plays this morning:

Bolton v Newcastle - EPL - neither team with top defenses but each have some powerful attackers on the field like Viduka, Martins, Smith, Anelka, and Diouf. Newcastle's goalie, Shay Given, is injured and match should be tense as Bolton still in a bit of scock from the departure of Allardyce for Newcastle, after 8 yrs with Bolton. Predict 2-2 Bolton/Newcastle over 2.5 goals @2.25 80/100

Hannover v HSV - German Bundy - I don't bet this league much and, since 1st week and taking a total, just the minimum stake. This series has seen overs in Hannover 4 of the last 5 meeting. Both clubs upgraded their attacks in the offseason after poor 06-07 campaigns. Predict 1-2
Hannover/HSV over 2.5 goals @2.12 50/56

my leans today were Everton/Wigan under 2.5, Wolfsburg home win, Derby/Pompey X, and Sunderland/Spurs X (just started)... no bets on any though

 

[benrik]

Nice hit. All Newcastle in that one

 

[rolltide]

Bolton ez over, HSV ez under so 1-1 +$50

YTD 2-1 +$265

just a note that odds fell apart late for Sunderland PK and Bielefeld +.5 ... Sunderland won in stoppage while Bielefeld thrashed Wolfsburg.

 

[rolltide]

Internacional vs Goias (Sunday Brazil)
- Abel Braga is back for his first match in charge of Internacional, the club he took to the titles of both Copa Libertadores and World Club Cup in 2006. He inherits a very different team from the title-winning side but still one of the top 10 in the league. They are currently mid-table and he has vowed to bring them to a Libertadores spot by year's end. One of the teams that is ahead of Inter is Goias so Abel has called this "a 6 point game". Goias are night and day depending on where they play. While they're unbeaten in 8 at home they have lost 4 straight on the road by a combined 10-2 score. They will miss their best player today due to yellow card accumulation, Paulo Baier, so goals will be hard to come by. I predict the arrival of Abel will ignite Inter to a 2-0 home win
Internacional home win @1.87 230/200

 

[rolltide]

Molde v Sparta & Haugesund v Honefoss (Sunday Norway 1st)
-just a small double based on statistics.
Molde to take over league lead with a home win and are 8-1-0 in last 9 overall and won 5 straight at home.
Haugesund avg results all around but are 7th at home with 5-2-2 record facing a team that has lost 6 straight road games by a 19-2 margin.
Molde/Haugesund double @2.32 $66/87

 

[rolltide]

Inter won 1-0
Molde won 1-0 but Haugesund drew 0-0

YTD 3-2 +$399

 

[quantumleap]

Good luck tide. I'll be checking in here from time-to-time.

 

[rolltide]

Wed Champions League

Ajax v Slavia - home team need to make the group stages and a very favorable draw against the Czechs. Ajax won the Dutch supercup over PSV last weekend while Slavia struggled badly to defeat Zilina in last round. UEFA ratings are Holland at 8 and Czech league 13

Sevilla v AEK - Greek teams are notoriously poor away in Europe and Sevilla's knocked out two Greek squads in the past two seasons in the UEFA cup. Sevilla defeated Real Madrid last weekend and must advance over AEK, though will have to do so with just 3 preseason matches behind them. UEFA rate La Liga #1 and Greek league 15th

Ajax/Sevilla parlay @1.80 $125/100

 

[rolltide]

Zurich v Besiktas (Champions League Wednesday)
- any time the price is right I always oppose Turkish teams away in Europe. TR season just getting underway while Swiss league has been going for several weeks. Zurich off to a nice start in the league winning all 3 home games with a 10-3 margin. UEFA rank TR league slightly higher than Swiss, 14 v 17 so leagues of relatively even strength. BJK should miss their famous goalie, Rustu, but do possess a very strong defense. I'd say if BJK score 1st this will be very tough for Zurich to overcome, but I'll bet on the home win.
Zurich home win @2.30 $100/130

Bate v Steaua (Champions League Wednesday)
- should be a class difference here as Romanian teams are always underrated in Europe despite having a #7 UEFA rating while Belarussian teams are very week, hence their 40th rating. Bate nearly lost at home to Icelandic team and now face a very strong squad that has good European experience, including a nice UEFA Cup run two years ago and playing in CL group stage last year. Bate miss their top scorer while Steaua are complete.
Steaua Bucharesti away win @1.87 $176/150

some thoughts on Dinamo/Werder o2.5 as well but nothing placed yet

 

[rolltide]

Fulham v Bolton (EPL Wed)
- watched both teams last week and each was poor but at least Fulham had the excuse of playing Arsenal away. Bolton can take nothing from the Newcastle match except they have some serious defensive issues. Don't think Bolton are overall a much better side and they never win this fixture away, 0-1-5 in last 6 trips. Also thought about the over but I'm sure little Sam will have Bolton very concentrated on defense after the NC disaster. Bolton still carrying a host of injuries and are a definite play-against team for the first month of this season. Let's see if the Americans can knock home the two goals in a 2-0 home win.
Fulham home win @1.35 $100/135

 

[benrik]

Fulham @ 1.35? Do you mean 2.35?

Good luck, though. I like the play.

 

[rolltide]

yes 2.35

 

[rolltide]

watching Steaua match and not only are they down 1-0 they are being badly outplayed. Looks to be a very bad pick on my part and I see no chance for them to overturn this result in final 30'

 

[rolltide]

just as I hit 'enter' Steau head one in off a free kick. 1-1 with a half hour to go

 

[rolltide]

well after Steaua took a 2-1 lead off a beauty free kick Bate scored on last play of the match to draw 2-2. today will be a disaster

 

[JohnMolson]

sevilla and ajax with very lame 1st half performances.surely they will pick it up in the 2nd halfhno:

 

[MrCleo]

Sevilla up 1-0, but ajax just missed a damn pen!

 

[rolltide]

was 3-2 +399

Ajax double lost -125
Steaua drew -176
Zurich lost -100
Fulham +135

anytime top play loses on last kick of the game the day is doomed. The two overs I was looking at, but did not take, both went over of course. Well, back to the drawing board

YTD 4-5 +133

 

[rolltide]

UEFA Cup Thursday

Maccabi Tel Aviv v Erciyesspor - Maccabi with a nice history in Europe and a home record of 6-1-0 in UEFA cup matches in last 6 years. They were very impressive at home in domestic league last year with a 10-4-3 record and scoring the most home goals in the league. Erciyesspor relegated to the Turkish 2 league and all important players left. Last year in Turkey's 1st division they gave up 32 away goals in 17 games, most in the league. high scoring home win

Cluj v Anorthosis - Cluj are a very strong Romanian team perhaps even able to challenge for the league title this season. Although the Romanian team I had today, Steaua, drew late this country's football is always underrated by bookies despite the lofty #7 UEFA position they hold. Cypriot football is fairly predictable in Europe...lose away and play very tough at home with the weather on their side. Cluj must build a big lead here before the away leg in that extreme heat and Anorthosis are here to defend. I'll predict 2-0

Kaerjeng v Standard Liege - There are only 3 European football leagues rated lower than Luxembourg and Kaerjeng are currently 0-2 in that league losing 1-6 overall, 1-5 at home to a team that finished 5th in the league last year. Standard are a good Belgian team off to a great league start and will have no problems with this team away from home

Maccabi TV + Cluj + Standard parlay @2.54 $163/251

maybe a few more in the morning

 

[rolltide]

the rest of today's UEFA Cup bets:

Ekranas home win @4.00 50/150

Metalurgs Liepaja home win @3.00 50/100

Hammarby under 2.5 goals @2.00 75/75

Hapoel/Siroki over 2.5 goals @2.35 100/135

Dnipro home win + Rabotniki over 2.5 goals parlay @2.30 100/130